Josh Clinton Publications

The lists that follow contain all of my peer reviewed publications (45), chapters written for edited volumes (7), projects that I am working on -- some for which I have a sharable draft (8) -- and a bunch of papers that were unable to survive the review process and which I think are not entirely worthless (10).

Forthcoming. "Donations and Dollars: Characterizing the Political Views of Donors and the Affluent." Journal of Politics. With Michael Barber, Brandice Canes-Wrone, and Greg Huber.
Forthcoming. "Which Republican Constituencies Support Restrictive Abortion Laws? Comparisons among donors, wealthy, and mass publics." Public Opinion Quarterly. With Michael Barber, Brandice Canes-Wrone, and Gregory A. Huber. [Appendix]
2024. "Synthetic Replacements for Human Survey Data? The Perils of Large Language Models." Political Analysis. 32 (4): 401-416. With James Bisbee, Cassy Dorff, Brenton Kenkel, and Jennifer M. Larson. https://doi.org/10.1017/pan.2024.5
2024. "Giving to the Extreme? Experimental Evidence on Donor Response to Candidate and District Characteristics." British Journal of Political Science. 54(3): 851-873. With Mellissa Meisels and Gregory A. Huber. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123423000650
2023. "Protecting the Integrity of Survey Research." PNAS Nexus. 2(3): 1-10. With Kathleen Hall Jamieson, Arthur Lupia, Ashley Amaya, Henry E. Brady, René Bautista, Jill A. Deverg, David Dutwin, Daniel L. Goroffi, D. Sunshine Hillygus, Courtney Kennedy, Gary Langer, John S. Lapinski, Michael Link, Tasha Philpot, Ken Prewitt, Doug Rivers, Lynn Vavreck, David C. Wilson, and Marcia K. McNutt. https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad049
2022. "Reluctant Republicans? Partisan Non-Response and the Accuracy of 2020 Presidential Pre-Election Polling." Political Opinion Quarterly. 86(2): 247-269. With John S. Lapinski and Marc J. Trussler. https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfac011
2022. "Trumped by Trump? Public Support for Vote By Mail Voting in Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic." Election Law Journal. March: 19-33. With John Lapinski, Sarah Lentz, and Stephen Pettigrew. https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/elj.2020.0671
2020. "Partisan Pandemic: How Partisanship and Public Health Concerns Affect Individuals' Social Mobility During COVID-19." AAAS/Science Advances. With Jon Cohen, John S. Lapinski, Marc Trussler. https://doi/10.1126/sciadv.abd7204.
2020. "Market Matters: The Effect of Big-City News on Rural America During the COVID-19 Pandemic." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. With Eunji Kim and Michael E. Shepard. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2009384117.
2020. "The Politics of Locating Polling Places: Race and Partisanship in North Carolina Election Administration, 2008-2016." Election Law Journal. With Adriane Fresh, Nick Eubank, and Michael E. Shepard.
2020. "Polling Place Changes and Political Participation: Evidence from North Carolina Presidential Elections, 2008-2016." Political Science Research & Methods. With Adriane Fresh, Nick Eubank, and Michael E. Shepard.
2020. "Policy Effects, Partisanship, and Elections: How Medicaid Expansion Affected Opinions of the Affordable Care Act.” Journal of Politics. With Michael W. Sances.
2020. "The Effect of Majority Party Agenda Setting on Roll Calls.” Public Choice. 185: 459 - 483.
2019. "Who Participated in the ACA? Gains in Insurance Coverage by Political Partisanship.” Journal of Health Politics, Policy and Law. 44(3): 349-379. With Mike Sances.
2019. "Knock out Blows or the Status Quo? Momentum in the 2016 Primaries.” Journal of Politics. 81(3): 997-1013. With Andrew M. Engelhardt and Marc J.Trussler.
2018. "An Evaluation of the 2016 Election Polls in the United States: AAPOR Task Force Report,” Public Opinion Quarterly. 82(1):1-33. With Courtney Kennedy, Mark Blumenthal, Scott Clement, Claire Durand, Charles Franklin, Kyley McGeeney, Lee Miringoff, Kristen Olson, Doug Rivers, Lydia Saad, G. Evans Witt, and Christopher Wlezien.
2018. "Lawmaking in the U.S: American Legislatures and Lawmaking,1997 – 2011," 1-33.Journal of Public Policy. With Mark D. Richardson.
2018. "The Politics of Policy: The Initial Mass Political Effects of Medicaid Expansion in the States,” American Political Science Review 112(1): 167-85. With Michael W. Sances.
2018. "Characterizing the Ideology of Federal Agencies: An Approach to Measuring Difficult-to-Observe Organizational Characteristics.” Journal of Politics 80(1):303-308. With David E. Lewis and Mark D. Richardson.
2018. "Changing Owners, Changing Content: Does Who Owns the News Matter for the News?,” Political Communication. 35(3):353-370. With Allison Archer.
2017. "Coding and Scaling the Ideological Direction and Content of Policies,” Annual Review of Political Science 20:433-450.
2017. "A House Divided? Political Conflict and Polarization in the U.S. Congress, 1877-2011.” American Journal of Political Science. 60(5): 866-898. With David Bateman and John Lapinski.
2016. "Assessing the Variation of Formal Military Alliances in the International System,1816-2000.” Journal of Conflict Resolution. 60(5): 866-898. With Brett Benson.
2015. "Public Information, Public Learning, and Public Opinion: The Prospect for Bottom-Up Accountability in Education Policy.” Journal of Public Policy. 35(3): 355-385. With Jason Grissom.
2014. "The National News Media’s Effect on Congress: How Fox News Affected Representatives in Congress,” Journal of Politics. 76(4): 928-943. With Ted Enamorado.
2014. "Political Influence in the Bureaucracy: The Irony of Congressional Oversight,” American Journal of Political Science. 58(2): 387-401. With David E. Lewis and Jennifer Selin. Appendix.
2013. "Robo-Polls: Taking Cues from Traditional Sources?” PS: Political Science & Politics. 46(2): 333-337. With Steve Rogers.
2012. "Congress, Lawmaking and the Fair Labor Standards Act, 1971-2000,” American Journal of Political Science. 56(2): 355-372. Appendix.
2012. "Separated Powers in the United States: The Ideology of Agencies, Presidents and Congress,”American Journal of Political Science. 56(2): 341-354. With Anthony Bertelli, Christian Grose, David Lewis, and David Nixon.
2012. "Using Roll Calls to Test Models of Politics,” Annual Review of Political Science, Vol 15: 79-99.
2011. "More A Molehill than a Mountain: the Effects of the Blanket Primary on Elected Officials’ Behavior From California,” Journal of Politics. 73(3): 915-930. With Will Bullock. Appendix.
2009. "To Simulate or NOMINATE?” Legislative Studies Quarterly. XXXIV (4): 593-622. With Simon Jackman.
2008. "Laws and Roll Calls in the U.S. Congress, 1889-1994.” Legislative Studies Quarterly. XXXIII(4): 511-542. With John Lapinski.
2008. "Design, Inference, and the Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism,” American Political Science Review. 102 (2): 269-74. With Scott Ashworth, Adam Meirowitz and Kristopher W. Ramsay.
2008. "Expert Opinion, Agency Characteristics and Agency Preferences,” Political Analysis. 16 (1): 3-20. With David E. Lewis.
2007. "Lawmaking and Roll Calls,” Journal of Politics 69(2):455-67. Appendix.
2007. "Does Advertising Exposure Affect Turnout?” Quarterly Journal of Political Science. 2(2): 27-41. With Scott Ashworth. Appendix.
2006. "Representation in Congress: Constituents and Roll Calls in the 106th House,” Journal of Politics 68 (2):397-409.
2006. "Measuring Legislative Accomplishment, 1877-1994,” American Journal of Political Science 50 (1):232-49. With John Lapinski.
2004. "The Statistical Analysis of Roll Call Voting: A Unified Approach,” American Political Science Review 98 (2) 355-70. With Simon Jackman and Doug Rivers.
2004. "Testing Accounts of Legislative Strategic Voting: The Compromise of 1790,” American Journal of Political Science 48(4):675-89. With Adam Meirowitz.
2004. "An Experimental Study of Political Advertising Effects in the 2000 Presidential Election,” Journal of Politics 66(1): 67-96. With John Lapinski.
2004. "The Most Liberal Senator“?: Analyzing and Interpreting Congressional Roll Calls,” PS: Political Science & Politics XXXVII (4): 805-12. With Simon Jackman and Doug Rivers. [Reprinted in 2005. Quantitative Methods in Practice: Readings from PS. David Rochefort ed. Washington, DC: CQ Press. Pp 105-115]
2003. "Integrating Voting Theory and Roll Call Analysis: A Framework,” Political Analysis 11 (4): 381-396. With Adam Meirowitz.
2001. "Agenda Constrained Legislator Ideal Points and the Spatial Voting Model,” Political Analysis 9 (3):242-260. With Adam Meirowitz. Addendum

Publications

Chapters

Here is what I have written for inclusion in edited volumes or other outlets. Some of these reflect early thinking of issues that were subsequently tackled in a paper published via the peer review process.

2024. “Roll Calls, Voting Coalitions, and Possible Agenda Control in the U.S. House of Representatives: 1869-2024,” in Causal Inference and American Political Development edited by Jefrey A. Jenkins. NY, NY: Springer. pp. 239-272.
2022. "The Importance of Issue Representation in a Polarized Congress." in Accountability Reconsidered: Voters, Interests, and Information in US Policymaking edited by Charles Cameron, Brandice Canes-Wrone, Sanford Gordon and Greg. Huber. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. pp. 15-41. With Michael W. Sances and Mary Catherine Sullivan.
2021. "Task Force on 2020 Pre-Election Polling: An Evaluation of the 2020 General Election Polls," American Association of Public Opinion. With: Jennifer Agiesta, Megan Brenan, Camille Burge, Marjorie Connelly, Ariel Edwards-Levy, Bernard Fraga, Emily Guskin, D. Sunshine Hillygus, Chris Jackson, Jeff Jones, Scott Keeter, Kabir Khanna, John Lapinski, Lydia Saad, Daron Shaw, Andrew Smith, David Wilson, Christopher Wlezien.
2016. "Measuring Political and Policy Preferences: Using Item Response Scaling” in Analytics, Policy and Governance edited by Jennifer Bachner, Kathryn Wagner Hill, and Benjamin Ginsberg. Yale University Press, New Haven: CT. pp. 15-40.
2016. "Where Measures Meet History: Party Polarization During the New Deal and Fair Deal” in Governing in a Polarized Age: Elections, Parties, and Representation in America edited by Alan Gerber and Eric Schickler. Cambridge University Press, NY:NY. pp. 191-219. With Ira Katznelson, and John S. Lapinski.
2016. "Representation” for Oxford Handbook of American Political Development, edited by Robert Lieberman, Suzanne Mettler, and Richard Valelly. Oxford University Press, NY:NY. pp. 399-424. With Larry Bartels and John Geer.
2007. "Measuring Significant Legislation, 1877-1948,” in Process, Party and Policymaking Vol. 2: Further New Perspectives on the History of Congress, David Brady and Matthew McCubbins eds. Palo Alto, CA: Stanford University Press. pp.361-378. With John Lapinski.
2002. "Testing Television Advertising Using Interactive Television: The Effectiveness of Political Advertisements” in Excellence 2002 in International Research, Deborah S. Fellows ed. Amsterdam, Netherlands: World Association of Research Professionals. pp. 273-90. With John Lapinski.

Working Papers

Here are some of the things I am currently working on (and for which the current draft is not entirely embarrassing). These are being actively revised, however, so the paper may change over time.

“Calibrating Small-Area Estimates to Known Population Quantities.” With Will Marble.
"An Affective Pandemic?" With Cindy Kam.
"Congressional Reactions to a Changing Nation: Immigration and Congressional Responsiveness in the House of Representatives, 1877-1953"
"Who Responds? Non-Response on Political Surveys" With Marc Trussler and John Lapinski.
"The Political Consequences of Criminal Violence: Applying MRP to Mexican Survey Data." With Clare Evans and Noam Lupu.

Non-Working Papers

Unpublishable WP

Here are some papers from my past that ran into issues in the publication process that were either too time consuming to fix or else the requested changes were impossible to adequately address. I offer them in the hopes that others may make progress.

2015. "Man versus Machine: An Experiment Comparing Human Interviewers and Interactive Voice Recording Technology." With John Lapinski and Steve Rogers.
2013. "Characterizing Chief Executives: Comparing Presidential and Congressional Preferences and Their Effect on Lawmaking, Agency Budgeting, and Unilateral Executive Action, 1874-2010." With Molly C. Jackman and Saul P. Jackman.
2011. "The Mediating Effect of the Media in the 2004 Presidential Election: The Case of the “Swift Boat” Ads." With Scott Ashworth.
2008. "Design, Inference, and the Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism: A Rejoinder." With Scott Ashworth, Adam Meirowitz, and Kris Ramsay.
2008. "Oversight, Accountability, and Constituency Ignorance." With Jeff Tessin.
2005. "Same Principals, Same Agents, Different Institutions: Roll Call Voting in the Congresses of Confederation and the U.S. Senate, 1781-1797"
2002. "Empirical Probability Scales for Verbal Expectations Data. With Application to Expectations of Job Loss." With Charles F. Manski.
2001. "Panel Bias from Attrition and Conditioning: A Case Study of the Knowledge Networks Panel."
1999. "Strategically Speaking: A New Analysis of Presidents Going Public." With David E. Lewis, Stephanie K. Riegg, and Barry R. Weingast.
1998. "An Independent Judiciary? Determining the Influence of Congressional and Presidential Preferences on the Supreme Court’s Interpretation of Federal Statutes: 1953-1995."